NFL Gambling Predictions, Week 4

Interesting slate of games this week. I'm leaving for Cincinnati shortly, so light posting today. Just a short list of predicted winners below. If you have not sent me your picks, cough them up.

Week 4

Indy @ Jets (+9): too big a spread for a visiting team

Chargers (-2.5) @ Ravens (1 point): Ravens couldn't cover against the Browns


Vikings (+1) @ Bills (25 pts): The Vikes almost beat the Bears and now they're 'dogs to the Bills?

Cowboys (-9.5) @ Titans: huge spread for an away team

Niners (+7) @ Chiefs: Trent Green still out; feels like a four point game

Saints (+7.5) @ Panthers (5 points): Carolina barely beat Tampa Bay and they're more than a touchdown favorites against a 3-0 team?

Arizona (+7) @ Atlanta: who knows? I'll take the Cardinals

Miami (-4) @ Houston (15 points): Texans are really bad

Detroit (+5.5) @ St. Louis: Rams should not be a 5.5 point favorite over anyone

New England (+6) @ Cinci: NE has not lost back-to-back games since the end of 2002. They cover.

Jacksonville (-2.5) @ Washington: Jags barely cover.

Browns (-2.5) @ Oakland (10 points): Oakland should be a 10-point dog to any team in the league

Seattle (+3.5) @ Bears: Seattle getting points seems like a good bet

Packers (+11) @ Eagles: Big, big number to cover for a team that cannot stop the pass at the end of games. Feels like a 31-24 type of game. 55 total points.

NFL Pool, Week 4

Attached are the games and point spreads for this week's NFL contests. As always, pick 5 games (assigning 25 , 15, 10, 5 and 1 point to each), pick the MNF winner and total number of points in the MNF game. Home team in CAPS. Enjoy.

Favorite Spread Underdog

Indianapolis Colts 9 NEW YORK JETS

San Diego Chargers 2.5 BALTIMORE RAVENS

BUFFALO BILLS 1 Minnesota Vikings

Dallas Cowboys 9.5 TENNESSEE TITANS

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 7 San Francisco 49ers

CAROLINA PANTHERS 7.5 New Orleans Saints

ATLANTA FALCONS 7 Arizona Cardinals

Miami Dolphins 4 HOUSTON TEXANS

ST. LOUIS RAMS 5.5 Detroit Lions

CINCINNATI BENGALS 6 New England Patriots

Jacksonville Jaguars 2.5 WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Cleveland Browns 2.5 OAKLAND RAIDERS

CHICAGO BEARS 3.5 Seattle Seahawks

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 11 Green Bay Packers

ND to Offer Season Tickets

In an unusual move, Notre Dame is making 5,000 season tickets available next year in order to help fund the stadium preservation (expected to cost at least $40MM). There is a $50 fee to put your name on the lottery list and also a tickets rights fee of up to $2000 per ticket (plus the face value of the ticket). Details here.

Also included in the article is a description of how to improve your chances in the ticket lottery. The point seems to be, basically, give enough money to be in the Sorin Society. We'll file this one under "Obvious."

I will not be applying for season tickets due to geographical constraints, but it might work for some of you who get back to the games more regularly.

Maybe I Should Just Flip a Coin??

Not going to Make 6 Unless They Pick it Up

Week 3 of the NFL is now in the books, and what a week it was...wait, it wasn't very interesting? Damn.

We're about two weeks away from knowing exactly how this NFL season is going to play out, but for now, it's still anybody's guess. Listed below is my commentary on each game and the pool results for the week. Needless to say, this is going to be one of the drop weeks for a lot of folks.

NYJ 28, Buffalo 20: I managed to catch the end of this game, and all I can say is that watching J.P. Losman throw the football makes me want to vomit. On two consecutive checkdown swing passes, he threw the ball so high that, even when jumping, his running back could not make the catch. This was during a final drive to tie the game, mind you. Terrible.

Green Bay 31, Detroit 24: The mind-numbing caricature that is Brett Favre lives for another week. BF finally performs well in the Detroit dome (surprising everyone) and Detroit collapses (surprising no one).

Indy 21, Jacksonville 14: Indy finds a way to win against a pretty tough competitor (although J'ville helped them out as well). Indy again looks good for 13 or 14 wins and a complete chokejob in the playoffs. Same old, same old.

Miami 13, Tennessee 10: I told you the spread on this game was way too high. When two teams of such enormous suckitude face each other, a point spread of 11 is ridiculous. By squeaking past the Titans, do you think Daunte got himself a free lap dance? Time in the Champagne Room?

Chicago 19, Minnesota 16: now that's the Rex I remember. The Bears defense is good enough to win 12 games this year, so Chicago will be fine, but no Bears fan can really feel comfortable knowing Rex is captaining the good ship Lovie.

Cincinnati 28, Pittsburgh 20: The Steelers (by which I mean Big Ben) gave this game to the Bengals. It was inexcusable, and now the Steelers are looking at two 3-0 teams in their own division. %$#&.

Carolina 26, Tampa Bay 24: For all of those people who predicted Carolina to win the NFC...it is not happening. They are not good. TB is even worse, and they lost their QB to a ruptured spleen (ouch).

Washington 31, Houston 15: as obvious a call as I have ever made, even with the way the Skins have played this year. Look...Washington is going 8-8. They will beat the teams they are supposed to and lose to anyone good. They have no downfield passing ability and Portis is pretty dinged up. Houston, on the other hand, has no hope whatsoever. It would be better if they just stopped playing football (if you can call it that).

Baltimore 15, Cleveland 14: Thank you to the Browns for not only allowing the Ravens to come back and win, but also playing just well enough to f*ck up the spread. Well done, dogpound. Maybe next time, someone from Cleveland could just take a crap in my Cheerios and be done with it. Mmmm, fiber.

St. Louis 16, Arizona 14: Did not watch this game, mercifully. Looks like Kurt Warner will start another week for the Cardinals. I guess Leinert was busy getting someone else pregnant. If there was ever a guy who should know to use a condom, wouldn't it be a Trojan??

Philadelphia 38, San Fran 24: Eagles rolled pretty well in this one. The defense needs to learn a little more of a killer instinct when it is up instead of allowing the opposition to get cheap scores at the end. The Niners are a 5-11 team. Just good enough to screw themselves out of anyone who could really help in the draft.

Seattle 42, NYG 30: Nowhere near this close. Seattle is the most mystifying team in the NFL. I simply cannot figure them out.

Denver 17, New England 7: I told you NE was done. Jake freaking Plummer just took it to the Patriots.

Saints 23, Atlanta 3: Good for the Saints (even though the game was clearly fixed).

Pool results:

Questionable Commentary: 41
CU Lions: 25
Clown Hater: 16
Geaux Irish: 10
SpragueND: 0 (no submission)
Festering in Dallas: 0 (no submission)

This week: 6-6-1
Y-T-D Results: 16-16-1

If we were wagering $100 on each game (and we had to pay a $10 vig for each loss), current winnings/losings for the year: minus $160.

Wow

Authorities are reporting that Terrell Owens attempted to commit suicide this morning. Story here.

No jokes to be made. Hopefully he gets the help necessary to recover.

There Is a God

Look who got fired today from ESPN. Excuse me while I do the dance of joy.

Sadly, he's probably right about ESPN's censorship. Here at QC, though, we are unconcerned with correctness. We are just happy we don't have to listen to his annoying prattle about Willingham and the evil ND machine. Don't let the door hit you in the (enormous) ass on the way out!

Insanely Bitter

I guess the flipside of how good we all feel about ND's comeback from the dead is this sound clip (posted in the comment section of EDSBS). Fast forward to about the 8-minute mark and then listen for 15 minutes. The host is obviously a huge MSU fan...and he might also be completely insane. It is a beautiful 15 minutes, though.

Reminds me of one of my favorite quotes: "...what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."

End of the Argument

A couple of days ago, I wrote how shortsighted internet columnists were playing up the "Weis and Willingham were both 11-4" angle. The attached article is a definitive answer as to why this argument is total BS. Enjoy.

RU-486 Analysis, Game 4

Notre Dame is trying to kill me. They must be, as that is about the only explanation for the roller coaster ride they took us all on Saturday night. I've listed my customary five things below, but -- taking a broader view of the season -- ND still has a lot of work to do. The defense, while strong at the end (thank Stanton!), still was shredded in the first half. Purdue will not be as easy a win as people are suggesting, but the rest of the schedule does set up well for the Irish to meet USC 11-1. The pass defense better be much improved by the time that happens.

Five Things I Didn't Like

1. Stupid turnovers: this was the theme of the Michigan game as well. The offense and special teams simply needs to stop giving away scoring opportunities with this frequency. UM and MSU are good teams that will capitalize on mistakes (and did). Scoring 19 in the fourth quarter was incredible, but it was an aberration.

2. Inability to run the football: I realize that ND was forced to pass for most of the game to catch up, but even before MSU leaped far ahead, the running game was nonexistent.

3. The wide receivers constantly bitching: seriously, guys, just make the play. Complaining to the ref after every pass play is getting really old very quickly.

4. Arm-tackling by the safeties: Zibby and Ndukwe looked awful in this game. I know MSU has a huge tailback/fullback, but you simply cannot get run over that many times and expect to win a game. They both looked more than a step slow. I love both those guys, but they really need to play a lot better for ND to win 11 games.

5. Bob Davie: someone seriously needs to jab a cattleprod in this guy's scrotum (metaphorically speaking, of course). At every possible opportunity, he denigrated the effort of the Irish and played up the skill of MSU. When the game finally ended, it was all about how MSU blew it (which, of course, they did) and nothing about how ND show resolve and came back and won it. I particularly enjoy his criticism of both teams' clock management skills again.

To review, Bob Davie was the worst coach in the history of college football at clock management. He would still be the coach of ND if he had learned how to effectively manage the clock at the end of the half. He lost at least 7 games during his tenure there due to his retarded monkey clock management. And btw, why doesn't ESPN/ABC just have John Saunders, Mark May and Davie call every game involving ND? That way no announcer could ever be accused of saying something positive about the Irish.

Five Things I Liked

1. Heart: I did not believe we could come back. Not just "would" but "could." I did not see the ability to stop the MSU offense and I certainly did not see the O-line giving Quinn enough time to feel comfortable (btw, Quinn REALLY needs to work on the side-out pass to his left. Terrible right now). The comeback was about MSU's mistakes, but mostly it was about the heart to believe you could come back. Props to Weis for getting the team to believe.

2. The fourth quarter: I wish I had a tape of just the fourth quarter (and by tape, I mean electronically available replay on my computer). I think I would watch it about 70 times this week.

3. The defense when it mattered: Love that these guys were able to step it up and force some turnovers. The last interception was incredible (and was the last TD/interception).

4. Beating MSU: whether we beat UM or not, I feel like the winner at the end of the game should shake the hand of the loser. The rivalry is heated and competitive, but respectful. Playing MSU is like playing basketball at the Y with some jackass that tries to grab your nuts while you rebound. I hope John L. Smith, especially after his utterly classless description of planting the flag, someday realizes what a piece of shit he is.

5. 40-37. 3-1. Go Irish.

NFL Gambling Predictions, Week 3

Very interesting slate of games this week from a gambling perspective. I have some strong opinions about a number of the games, although I could very well be completely wrong about those opinions. We'll know Monday night. The games and my picks are listed below.


New York Jets (+5.5) @ Buffalo Bills: Interesting game considering how well Pennington played in the first game against Tennessee and also how well the Jets played in coming back against the Patriots last week. The Bills have a good defense and a poor offense, but the Jets never play well in Buffalo, so the pick is Buffalo.

Cincinnati Bengals (+2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Very tough game for the Steelers, especially considering how poor Big Ben looked on MNF. I refuse to pick against my boys. However, you will note I did not assign this game and points.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts: Peyton and company have won this one by 7 and 8 points, respectively, last year. I think the Colts are not quite as good as last year and the Jaguars are better than they were last year. The Colts should still win, but Jags cover.

Tennessee Titans (+11) @ Miami Dolphins: Miami is 0-2 and is giving 11 points. Think about that. I wonder if there has ever, in the history of NFL gambling, been a comperable situation. This game strikes me as a total stinker. I'll take the Titans, if only because I think the Jets and Dolphins are similar teams, and the Jets-Titans game was closer than 11.

Washington Redskins (-4) @ Houston Texans (*25): Putting 25 points on the 'Skins is extraordinarily foolhardy and also violates a rule espoused in one of my posts this week. I just cannot see them beating the Texans by fewer than 4. The 'Skins are the middle class of the NFL, and the middle class should stick it to the po'.

Chicago (-3.5) @ Minnesota: The Bears lose something when they play in a dome (that ferocious defense is caged a bit by being inside), and the Vikings are playing well. Plus, at some point, Rex Grossman is going to remember who he is. The Vikings cover. I hope.

Carolina Panthers (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Both teams have performed well under expectations, but I think Carolina is the team that rebounds this week with a win. Chucky grows ever more Chucky-like.

Green Bay Packers (+6.5) @ Detroit Lions: Favre never performs well in the dome in Detroit. Plus, I think he had his one good game of the year last week. Detroit wins big.

Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) @ Cleveland Browns: I hate to say this, but I think the Ravens cover. The Browns are not a good football team, and it will be just my luck that the Ravens open the season 3-0.

St. Louis Rams (-4.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: This spread seems far too large for me, especially with the Cardinals at home. Cardinals cover.

New York Giants (+3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: (*10) I like the G-Men to cover. Seattle has not shown me anything this year.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6) @ San Francisco 49ers (*15): Eagles win this one by more than a touchdown. San Fran remembers they suck.

Denver Broncos (+7) @ New England Patriots (*1): Way too big a spread on this game. Denver covers, barely.

MNF -- Atlanta @ New Orleans: (*5)If it were not the reopening of the Superdome, I would have this as my 25-point game. Emotion does play a part in pro sports, though, so I'll pick the Falcons to win bt only give it 5 points in the pool.

Total points: 31.

Mumblings and Bumblings

There is no point to the picture; I just found it amusing in a "Man, I forgot how ridiculous that was" kind of way.

Thursday might be my least favorite day of the week (now that I am a "respectable," working stiff). In law school, Thursdays were poker night, while in college, Thursdays were Heartlands night. Both equally enjoyable pasttimes (one obviously more lucrative than the other). Now, Thursdays are another day that is not Friday. At least the conferences have decided to put on some college football (even if it is the normally crappy variety).

In honor of Thursday (a/k/a "that day with basically no redeeming qualities and no good TV shows"), here are some more random musings from the world of sport and beyond:

-- Tiger Woods is apparently really pissed that an Irish newspaper published allegedly fake nude pictures of his wife. That newspaper is absolutely going to get a visit from the most vicious lawyers Tiger can afford. I imagine that's somebody pretty good.

-- Are we certain those pictures are fake? Do we need expert analysis? The readers of this blog are more than available.

-- The White Sox are d-u-n. Thankfully. Ozzie Guillen is, among other things, a very good manager and brilliant baseball mind. Some of the other things are misogynist, racist and a buffoon. I will not mind a few months without some loudmouthed comment from Ozzie. Is it really that difficult to act a little more like Joe Torre or Jim Leyland? Keep in mind I hate the Yankees when thinking about this. I just respect the ability of a manager to get his job done without continually acting like a retarded donkey.

-- If I read one more story about how Ty and Charlie both started 11-4, I think my eyes will start bleeding. Is it possible everyone has forgotten HOW Ty went 8-0? Balls bounced off referees and were intercepted. A slant play against MSU goes for 55 yards while the clock is under 1 minute. Lucky, lucky, lucky. What happened when that luck ran out? Does anyone seriously believe that the two coaches are even remotely similar in terms of ability and/or gameplanning? Please.

-- Good for Richard Branson, who today pledged $3 billion to fight global warming. I find it hard to believe anyone seriously doubts the fact that temperatures have risen in the past few decades, so someone pledging their own personal wealth to combat this deserves some praise. Perhaps, though, he could have pledged $2.995 billion and used some on a day at the spa. 'Cause that dude is freaky looking.

-- Michigan State is only a three-point underdog against ND this weekend. I can't figure out which is scarier: (1) MSU is only a three-point dog or (2) I am not at all convinced we will cover?

-- Did anyone else see the Yakety Sax video of the UM-ND highlights? Michigan blogsters really know how to win with class, I tell you what. No one can ever accuse those guys of totally overreacting. Good on 'ya, boys. Class through and through.

-- Reggie Bush took a crapload of money for him and his parents while playing at USC. Shocking. I understand the argument that coaches cannot watch every player at all times (institutional control issues are always the big ones for the NCAA), but it stands to reason that coaches should be able to watch their best players (i.e. Bush, Bomar, etc.). Pete Carroll really didn't know his star player's parents were living in a 5,000 square foot house? Uh-huh. I hope the NCAA strips the Heisman from Bush and takes a bulldozer to USC's season last year. Won't happen, but a man can dream.

-- Finally, the Phillies are now tied for the wild card lead in the NL. Cue the crushing disappointment of a losing streak in 3...2....1.....

Later.

NFL Pool, Week 3

Here are the games and spreads for this week. Once I've got everyone's picks, I'll post my predictions for the week.

One question of interest: how do you think ND plays this weekend against MSU? Rebound from the domination of the UM game? Or long slide back into mediocrity?

Favorite Spread Underdog

BUFFALO BILLS 5.5 New York Jets

PITTSBURGH STEELERS 2 Cincinnati Bengals

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 7 Jacksonville Jaguars

MIAMI DOLPHINS 11 Tennessee Titans

Washington Redskins 4 HOUSTON TEXANS

Chicago Bears 3.5 MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Carolina Panthers 3 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

DETROIT LIONS 6.5 Green Bay Packers

Baltimore Ravens 6.5 CLEVELAND BROWNS

ARIZONA CARDINALS 4.5 St. Louis Rams

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 3.5 New York Giants

Philadelphia Eagles 6 SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 7 Denver Broncos

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Atlanta Falcons PK NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

This is Why Sports Betting Would be a BAD Idea; NFL Recap Week 2

Between the Irish getting housed in South Bend and both my Eagles and Steelers finding ways to lose their games, this was not a good football weekend.

On to the oh-so-painful recap of the week that was and the scores from this week's pool. New entry from New Haven takes the pool this week, narrowly edging out Geaux Irish. Yours truly finishes dead last.

Week 2

New Haven: 51
Geaux Irish: 50
Clown Hater: 31
CU Lions: 16
MPS: 6

On to the recap of the actual games....

Atlanta 14, Tampa Bay 3: Tampa Bay's offense is eerily reminiscent of the Ravens' offense of the past few years -- good skill position players, good defense, atrocious quarterback play. And I have Simms on one of my fantasy teams. Nice call by me. Tampa is in serious trouble due to the division they play in and the quality of those teams. The score to this one would have been even more lopsided if the Falcons kicker didn't resemble the kicker from The Longest Yard (remake). I kicked better at the college football hall of fame in a suit, after drinking a fifth. Questionable Commentary picked Tampa Bay, perhaps for the final time this season.

Chicago 34, Detroit 7: the only game our friend from New Haven chose incorrectly (homerism biting him in the ass). Chicago is not this good, I swear. I refuse to believe that a team with Rex Grossman at the helm is going to win 13 games, even in the dreadful NFC North. QC picked Detroit, which was obviously a mistake. I mean...Rex Grossman?!? Is this a cruel joke?

Cincinnati 34, Cleveland 17: QC actually picked this game correctly (gasps audible from the audience). The Bengals look good, and they certainly look like they are going to annihilate my Steelers come Sunday. Where is Kimo von Olhoffen when you really need him? Cleveland belongs in NFL Europe. I'm sure there is a battle there somewhere for Private Winslow.

New Orleans 34, Green Bay 27: Maybe it was the meth-induced haze, but QC managed to miss picking this game completely. Those fumes are killers, boys. I would probably have hurt myself if forced to watch this brand of football, so better for all that I missed it. Great game for fantasy football, but these two teams will struggle to score this many points again all year. Saints on MNF this week. Can't wait for that one. Oh, wait, yes I can. Maybe I'll catch Deal or No Deal.

Indianapolis 43, Houston 24: Another correct call by QC. Peyton throws for 400 even. I find it hard to believe the official scorer did not help Peyton out a little on this one. "Cause Peyton looks like a badass in those Gatorade commercials. I would be scared of him, too. Until I remembered that the "rebirth of cool" and "Peyton Manning" being mentioned in the same sentence is a grotesque a prostitution of the English language as "Michael Jackson" and "babysitter."

Buffalo 16, Miami 6: Another correct pick for QC. I said this last week: Daunte Culpepper sucks. He is not, nor will he ever be, a very good NFL quarterback. Maybe I shouldn't be so harsh. Perhaps if he decided to get down to QB-weight instead of starting guard weight, and perhaps if he decided that gangbanging a stripper on a "pleasure cruise" was not bringing the appropriate amount of "focus" to his job...well then maybe he could be very good. But probably not.

Minnesota 16, Carolina 13: Bad call by QC. Minnesota played reasonably well, but in my defense, Carolina wins this game if John Fox avoids imitating a retarded monkey on the backwards pass playcall in the fourth quarter. Big game for the Vikings this week against the Bears. We'll see who's a pretender and who is....generally less of a pretender.

Giants 30, Eagles 24: Picked this one correctly, although I should have lost it (and would have been happier had that been the case). There is no excuse -- none -- for blowing a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter. At home. The overtime play that won the game for the Giants was pathetic. Looked like ND's corners out there. The Eagles can win the NFC East, but not if they give away these kind of games.

Baltimore 28, Oakland 6: QC correct. Oakland is the worst team in football. Gambling against them, however, puts the lipstick on the pig for me. Suey, baby. Baltimore is 2-0, but the still the leader in crack use and prostitution. I wonder if those statistics go up or down depending on if the game is at home and whether the Ravens win??

SF 20, St. Louis 13: Very bad pick by QC on this one. I did not think there was any way SF was going to win this game. People who really like NFC West football are the same kind of people who really enjoy watching two random college teams on a Thursday night. It's football, yes, but even addicts should have a line. I'm just saying.

Seattle 21, Arizona 10: Seattle has scored 30 points the entire year and is 2-0. You figure it out. They'll probably go 12-4 or 13-3 (likely 6-0 or 5-1 in the division) and get a bye into the playoffs. I'm sure they'll get screwed by the officials, though. It couldn't be that there a soft-ass team with no ability to hit anyone in the mouth. Must be the officials. QC missed this one, dammit.

Denver 9, KC 6: I went blind halfway through watching this game. Anyone know what happened? I picked it correctly, but sweet Jeebus, what are they doing to football in Denver and KC? Did the NFL expand recently like baseball? Did all of the quality QBs have Total Recall-like lobotomies?

NE 24, NY Jets 17: QC missed this one by one point. And Tom Brady f'ed me on his fantasy stats (again). On the upside for him, his alma mater looked pretty good this week. Fascists.

San Diego 40, Tennessee 7: QC's worst pick of the week. Play Vince Young now, Tennessee. The stadium should have an inscription over the door reading "Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate".

Dallas 27, Washington 10: No more picks by QC knowing I am going to have to watch the actual game. Knew Dallas was going to win this one. Stupid, stupid, stupid. The Redskins are baaaad. Jump from the ship now.

Jacksonville 9, Pittsburgh 0: %$#^&#^##!!!! Are you kidding me? With the Bengals coming this week, the Steelers really could have used this game.

This week: 6-9-0
Y-T-D Results: 10-10-0

If we were wagering $100 on each game (and we had to pay a $10 vig for each loss), current winnings/losings for the year: $100.

Out today, back tomorrow

Home from work today. NFL recap (including how the Steelers blew a winnable game on the road) tomorrow.

Did I Just Spend the Night in Prison? 'Cause It Feels Like It

Well.....thankfully, the Michigan game is over. I have listed my customary "Five Things" post below, but I had some difficulty in determining five things I liked about this game. Not surprisingly, I found five things to dislike fairly quickly. The important thing to remember in all of this, I guess, is that this was one game in a long season. While national championship talk now looks silly (even if we win out), ND fans should concentrate on winning one game at a time and trying to get to USC 10-1. On to the review:

Five Things I Liked

1. The defense in the second half: I grant you that UM was playing it a bit conservatively, but the defense held them, basically, to two field goals. Not a bad performance at all.

2. The drive before the end of the first half: spread, no-huddle offense was very successful against the soft zone. Again, this may have been more of a function of UM being up 34-7, but I am looking for positives here.

3. Miller Lite. Very tasty during the game. Much better in bottles than cans.

4. Having your one-year old daughter in a Brady Quinn jersey watch the game with you. Makes it hard to throw anything at the TV.

5. Having picked the PSU game as the one to attend.

5 Things I Didn't Like

1. Brady Quinn under pressure.

2. The woeful offensive line.

3. The defense's inability to stop Michael Hart or Chad Henne in the first half.

4. The feeling of being totally dominated and humiliated.

5. The realization that, at best, it will now be 19 years until we have a chance to compete for the national title. Good times.

Post-script: Early postings on ND blogs seem to suggest Weis is at fault for this performance. I say to those posters, give it a rest. Remember that Weis still had Ty's recruits (and that most of those guys are not very good). It is encouraging that ND has accomplished at much as it has given the state of talent on the team. Perhaps we should give the guy a break. MSU up next. A revenge game and a game coming off a beating. We better respond.

NFL Gambling Predicitions, Week 2

I confess that I do not like the spreads on the games much this week (a recurring theme you will see below). One of my central rules for gambling is to avoid games with huge spreads, primarily because a team can utterly dominate an opponent and still give up a trash touchdown at the end to win the game by 10. But for the gambler, this is very bad. Anyway, listed below are my thoughts and predictions with respect to this week's contests (games I picked for the NFL pool starred, with point values listed):

Carolina (-1.5) @ Minnesota: I do not believe in Minnesota. Rather, I think their performance of last Monday night was more of a result of the general craptastic nature of the Redskins, so the pick here is Carolina. With or without Steve Smith.

Buffalo (+6.5) @ Miami (1*): Do not believe the Daunte Culpepper hype. He sucks. Buffalo is not a good team, but I think they cover.

New York Giants (+3) @ Philadelphia: Very difficult game to pick. I think the Giants are actually going to win this one, but I see it as a close-fought game throughout.

Houston (+13) at Indianoplis (5*): This is one of the big spread games that has me worried. The pick here is Indy, if only because I think the Texans are just that bad.

Detroit (+9) @ Chicago: I'm going with Detroit on this one. Chicago did not look unbeatable in destroying the Sisters of the Poor last week (a/k/a Green Bay), so I think the Lions cover.

Cleveland (+10) @ Cincinnati: Another huge spread disaster waiting to happen. I'll take the Bengals, if only because I have Carson Palmer on my fantasy team.

Tampa Bay (+5.5) @ Atlanta: Is TB as bad as they showed last week against the Ravens? Is Atlanta as good as they played last week against Carolina? The answers to these questions might help me pick this game. Alas, I am stumped by this one and so will chose Tampa Bay to cover.

Oakland (+11.5) @ Baltimore: Oakland is an atrocious football team. I hate the Ravens as rivals to the Steelers, but the money has to be on those guys.

Arizona (+7) @ Seattle: Kurt Warner comes through for one more week against a Seattle team still bitching about the Super Bowl. Cardinals cover.

St. Louis (-3) @ San Francisco (*15): The spread on this game seems very low to me, even though the game is in San Fran. I like Marc Bulger and St. Louis to run it up against the Niners.

Tennessee (+11.5) @ San Diego: Tennessee is a bad team, but not two touchdown losers to the Chargers and a rookie quarterback bad.

New England (-7) @ New York Jets (10*): Patriots are done killing their own division with ease. Jets are not a good team, but they stay close enough to the Pats at home to cover.

Kansas City (+10.5) @ Denver: KC is starting Damon Huard. Denver is starting Jake Plummer. I am not totally convinced Plummer is that much better than Huard. I like KC to cover. Bitter rivalry games always seem to be closer than people think.

Washington (+6) @ Dallas: Case in point about bitter rivalries. Both these teams, possible NFC representatives in the Super Bowl according to the pundits, looked awful. I like the Skins to cover. Barely.

MNF -- Pittsburgh (-1) @ Jacksonville: (25*) Pittsburgh is the pick. Total points of 44.

Y-T-D results: 4-1-0 (0.800%)

NFL Pool, Week 2

Listed below are the games and point spreads for Week 2. As always, assign point values of 25, 15, 10, 5 and 1 points to 5 games, respectively. 56 total is a perfect score. Also pick both the MNF winner against the spread (if not already one of your games) and the total number of points scored in the MNF game (Pittsburgh at Jacksonville). Picks are due by Friday at 5 P.M.

Here goes (home team in caps):

Favorite Spread Underdog

BALTIMORE RAVENS 11.5 Oakland Raiders

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 13 Houston Texans

CINCINNATI BENGALS 10 Cleveland Browns

MIAMI DOLPHINS 6.5 Buffalo Bills

CHICAGO BEARS 9 Detroit Lions

Carolina Panthers 1.5 MINNESOTA VIKINGS

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 3 New York Giants

ATLANTA FALCONS 5.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Orleans Saints 2.5 GREEN BAY PACKERS

St. Louis Rams 3 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 7 Arizona Cardinals

New England Patriots 6 NEW YORK JETS

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 11.5 Tennessee Titans

DENVER BRONCOS 10.5 Kansas City Chiefs

DALLAS COWBOYS 6 Washington Redskins

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Pittsburgh Steelers 1 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Well, that was pretty f'ed up (a/k/a Week 1 NFL Review)

Week 1 of the NFL season is always an interesting time for fans and gamblers alike (although, really, is there any difference??). Too much of last season carries over into predictions for this year (see my dismal results in this week's NFL pool below), plus too much weight is given to pundits' prognostications (i.e. Dallas as a good team). Week 1 is also dangerous in regards to Week 2 because some teams looked far different during Week 1 than they will midway through the season. Without further delay, here is the Week 1 roundup:

Pittsburgh 28, Miami 17: lost in the hype surrounding Miami trading for Daunte Culpepper during the offseason was the realization that he is actually not the good of a quarterback (at least without Randy Moss to throw to). Culpepper makes bad decisions at the biggest junctures of the game, and the Steelers exploited that. Additionally, has any defending champ been given less respect recently?

New Orleans 19, Cleveland 14: Both of these teams are going to be awful this year. They may, in fact, meet again in an imaginary battle for the first pick in the 2007 draft. Drew Brees is going to be hit so many times and from so many different angles that the cockroach attached to his face might be knocked off. Oh...was that out loud? Sorry. Cleveland is starting Charlie Frye. This ends badly for Browns fans.

Seattle 9, Detroit 6: Uggh. I went to the Redskins-Bears game last year where the score was also 9-6, and it was boooooring. Detroit is going to suck, we all know that. I expected more from Seattle. Maybe Holmgren is still pissed about the officiating in the Super Bowl. Keep crying, fatty.

New York Jets 23, Tennessee 16: Nice to see the Jets play well, if only because the possibility of seeing the drunk J-E-T-S guy on Sportscenter remains alive. Tennessee should just give the ball to Vince Young at this point and be done with it. I think he's going to be a huge bomb as a pro, but we'll see. At least they would know more quickly, though. Akili Smith, anyone?

Cincinnati 23, Kansas City 10: Odd game for the Bengals. They really did not play well, but they did go to Kansas City and get a win (which is unusual for anyone). Lots on consternation from fantasy owners about Larry Johnson. He will not be one of the leading rushers this year, folks. Offensive line is awful. Trent Green would like to know if he can have his brain back now. Brutal, brutal hit.

St. Louis 18, Denver 10: Denver could have used an Israeli mafia-backed, Grey Goose-drinking running back in this one. Or maybe just a quarterback who could complete a pass to his own team. St. Louis is an enigma due to the new offensive system and coach.

New England 19, Buffalo 17: New England's run is over. You heard it first here at QC. Done. They may -- may -- win their division, but only because the division sucks. Buffalo played an above-average game for them and looks like a 7 or 8-win team.

Baltimore 27, Tampa Bay 0: Other categories Baltimore currently leads in: per capita crack use and prostitution. It's true, look it up. As a Steelers fan, I find it hard to be objective about Crackville....I mean Baltimore. Chucky cannot be happy right now, but at least he's not in Oakland.

Atlanta 20, Carolina 6: Atlanta is the pick to win this division. Carolina has a good defense but is basically weaponless without a healthy Steve Smith. Watching the NFC South play football makes me want to hurt little furry things. So...much...pain.

Philadelphia 24, Houston 10: Another outlandish pick for you - Philly goes to the playoffs, either as a division winner or the first wildcard. Not so outlandish - Houston is terrible. The Texans season was over when they decided to pick Mario Williams over Reggie Bush. As ND fans, we have some experience with Reggie. Did the Texans not watch the film?

Chicago 26, Green Bay 0: watched the entirety of this one. The Bears offense is not going to be good enough to advance deep into the playoffs, but it is slightly above average for the league. Green Bay is atrocious in every respect. Enough about Brett Favre and his "love of the game." You now what I love? Getting paid an assload of money to hem and haw about whether I want to be paid an assload of money.

Brief diversion here with some rambling thoughts: is there another business in the world where there is more speculation about people being "burned out"? The controversy surrounding Cowher coming back springs to mind here. In the normal world, people go to work every day, year in and year out, regardless of how they feel. Nobody just takes a couple of years off because they feel downtrodden. But in football (and sports in general), there is always this talk of burnout, as if a coach's job is somehow that much harder than everyone else's. You know who is probably a little burned out right now? Marines. And they don't have an offseason.

Arizona 34, San Francisco 27: Nice defense in this one. Both shitty, 5-11 or worse teams. Kurt Warner is probably going throw for a gazillion yards and kill my fantasy teams but that should not erase the fact the he is just not that good anymore. System QB in a bad system. San Fran is run, according to his players, by Hitler. They better hope it's pre-1942 Hitler and not Luger in the mouth Hitler.

Jacksonville 24, Dallas 17: I foolishly bought into the whole "Cowboys are going to be great this year" sales pitch. Stupid me. Drew Bledsoe is still their quarterback, right? I deserve this one. No idea about Jacksonville. Literally. I have no confidence in Byron Leftwich, although I do admire his toughness.

Indianapolis 26, New York Giants 21: Good football game, although sloppily played on both sides. One favor: ENOUGH with the Mannings. Good players, both of them, but I do not need to see them every day on my television.

Minnesota 19, Washington 16: Redskins go 8-8 this year with a craptastic offense. Minnesota looked OK, and they play in a horrible division. Probably 8-8 or 9-7. Brad Johnson is always above average if he gets a little protection.

San Diego 27, Oakland 0: Hard to judge San Diego because Oakland is so freaking terrible. I detest the Raiders from the old Steel Curtain days, so I take some joy in seeing them approach this level of suckitude. Perhaps Jeff George would have been a good pickup, after all.

Complete picks tomorrow. I managed to go 4 out of 5 in the pool this week (of course missing my 25-pointer [FU, Dallas]), so hopefully we can continue the streak this coming week. Later.

Bates Motel Now Located in Greeley, Colorado

I will put up a review of the entire NFL slate from last weekend later today (and tomorrow I'll pick all the games against the spread), but I thought you might enjoy this link. Whoever said kickers were wusses just hadn't met this guy yet.

Here's the question that occurred to me (one of many, actually): how do you get expelled from school but only suspended from the team?

Week 1: Mediocrity Rules the Day

Hung up in meetings all day. Listed below are the results of the first week of the NFL pool. Remember, we're dropping the worst three weeks, so a bad week is most assuredly not fatal to your chance. Here we go:

First place: CU Lions, 40 points
Second place: MPS, 31 points
Third place: Geaux Irish, 30 points
Fourth place: Clown Hater, 11 points

I'll do a full roundup of all of the games I saw plus some additional snide comments tomorrow.

Back to my TPS reports.

RU-486 Analysis, Game 2

Sorry for the delay. Flew back from Chicago this morning and had the decidedly unpleasant experience of sitting in the seat next to the absolutely crazy woman on the way into work. This woman went on (seemingly forever) about her ability to play the harmonica. No one was talking back to her; she apparently did not need interaction from other humans to enjoy herself. Batshit crazy. Awesome.

So...on to the Penn State game and the 5 things I liked and disliked. As always, I have not looked at any other blogs or e-mails containing any thoughts on the game.

5 Things I Didn't Like

1. PSU's receivers getting deep behind the secondary twice in the first three quarters. In the first instance, the ND defender wisely interfered with the PSU receiver. I don't know whether it was a conscious decision, but it was a good move due to the lameass 15 yard penalty rule in college football. On the second occasion, the PSU receiver dropped the ball. There was also an instance where the PSU receiver was wide open in the middle of the field and the ball was tipped.

All of these need to be corrected if we are to (1) contain Michigan and (2) contend for the national title. Overall, though, the defense looked very good. This is mostly nitpicking.

2. The two drunk assholes behind me at the game. It was like the Cobra Kai were sitting in the seats right behind me: "Put Paterno in a bodybag." Nice.

3. Darius Walker's inability to stop dancing in the hole: just hit the GD hole, Darius. Seriously. 3 cuts is not going to work behind this offensive line and with a quick, attacking defense on the other side.

4. Brady's throws when really pressured: he looks tight when the rush is in face (lets throws sail). Weis needs to correct this because other teams are not going to hang back like PSU. Brady needs to recognize how to hit the hot read when teams finally do bring a lot of pressure. Rhema or Shark are going to break one of those little slants for 80.

5. O'Hare: I have nothing else critical to say about ND's performance, so how about a little shout out to the longest walk I have had in about three years -- from security to my gate at O'Hare. Jeebus.

5 Things I Liked

1. Weis' playcalling: much, much better than the GT game. Showed real creativity, especially with the fourth down fake punt. Should have kicked the field goal after that drive, though. PSU fans were pissed and they are going to punish us next year for that.

2. The defense (and particularly Tommy Z): played very fast, especially after PSU's first series. This unit really could be the most improved in the country.

3. Brady when given time to throw: if the O-line blocks well for him (or the defense doesn't blitz), I am convinced he could throw the ball through a tire at 50 yards.

4. The atmosphere in the stadium: goosebumps on my goosebumps.

5. ND and PSU renewing this rivalry. Wish it happened every year. And btw, where are the props for PSU for playing ND out-of-conference? Commentators keep giving tOSU and Texas a hummer for their decision but nothing for PSU at all (we all know no one will give any credit to an independent like us). PSU played the #4 team in the country in the second week of the season. Just saying.

Mumblings and Bumblings

While I sit twiddling my thumbs waiting for the appointed hour when I can leave (tomorrow) for the airport, lots of thoughts race through my head. And since this is a blog (essentially an egotistic exercise in humor), I thought I'd share:

-- I watched Roddick beat Hewitt last night (after catching the end of the Sharapova match). I find it amusing that I cannot really notice the difference between a 110 and 140 mph serve but that the difference between a 70 and 100 mph pitch in baseball is glaring.

-- Charlie Batch is not as bad as some would have you think, nor is Daunte Culpepper as good (I am looking at you, Peter King). Go Steelers.

-- Read this story. While not crashing while masturbating, it is still something else.

-- Jenn Sterger is hot, no matter what EDSBS thinks. That said, go away Jenn Sterger. The fact that you have a relationship/sports column on CNNSI makes me think that the end cannot be far away. Let's hope the Rapture comes after the PSU game ('cause those tickets were expensive).

-- At this point, does anyone -- and I mean anyone -- actually care about what is happening in baseball? Some Marlins guy working for minimum wage threw a no-hitter last night....and I was more concerned with the pre-game football stories. Wake me up when the playoffs get here.

-- Anyone see Invincible? Any good? Should I spend 11 dollars? There's no chance I see Marky Mark's package again, right? Avoidance of that is definitely in the top five movie-going rules.

-- CNN says Guilani and Clinton are the favorites for the 2008 race. I cannot stress how much I would love for this to happen. It could be the most contentious campaign of all-time. Think, for a second, about the insults sure to be let loose.

-- Not to speak ill of the dead, but is anyone surprised the "Croc Hunter" died while at work? This guy basically pissed off humongous deadly animals for sport. I'm shocked, shocked that he died doing that.

-- Why must CNNSI put the swimsuit pictures on the sports webpage? Are they actively trying to get me fired?

-- Ever notice how so many of the Russian tennis players have "dead eyes"? That is, no real emotion in them? "If he dies, he dies." "I must break you."

-- Where should I park when coming to the ND-PSU game? I don't mind walking a bit, just need to know where to shoot for.

-- Get your NFL picks in to questionablecommentary@yahoo.com.

Does it count if the other team is insane?

While surfing the day away visiting various internet blogs, I came across this one. I've actually been reading his stuff throughout the summer, but the upcoming ND game has apparently had the same effect on him as a normal person taking a shiv through the eye.

Now, I am not normally an excitable guy, particularly when it comes to braggadocio from partisan fans. However, this Penn State guy is so over-the-top that it actually makes a laughable read. The fact that he honestly expects a team that rushed for so few yards and sloppily beat Akron to come into South Bend and destroy ND is comical.

Don't get me wrong -- it is entirely possible that PSU beats ND on Saturday. There is zero chance, though, that PSU blows out ND.

ND has significant advantages at the quarterback, running back and offensive line positions. The only real area in which PSU is markedly better than ND is the linebacking corps. We'll leave it at that.

THEY HAVE ARRIVED

After months of (what I was sure was futile) searching, ticket prices for the ND-PSU game finally started to drop this week. I imagine that there are lots of people that are afraid of trying to scalp tickets on game day. Anyway, the above arrived this morning (picture from eBay, which is why the rows are blanked out). Needless to say, I am more than a little excited about this game.

In the interim, I managed to get myself roped into a second fantasy football league. Two drafts irrefutably proves the point that I have no idea what I am doing in regards to FF. I did manage to get both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady...and then realized they have the same bye week. Good times.

I also take part in a very interesting NFL pool each week, the rules of which are: pick 5 games against the spread, with point values of 25, 15, 10, 5 and 1 assigned to each game (I may have told some of you this before). Obviously 56 points is perfect. Ties with the spread are broken by picking the MNF winner. Ties between players are broken by closest to total number of points in the MNF football game.

So....how about we get involved in a little NFL pick 'em? I have set up an e-mail address, questionablecommentary@yahoo.com, to take the picks. Each week, I will need your five picks (and the point values assigned to each), the MNF football winner (if not already one of your picks) and the total points in the MNF game. Interested? Winner gets a nice prize from questionablecommentary at the end of the season (seriously). I have listed the spreads for the first week below. If you want to pick tomorrow night's game, make sure to get the picks to me by kickoff.

Also, pick the first MNF game this week as your tiebreaker.

This week's games (home team in caps):

Favorite Spread Underdog

PITTSBURGH STEELERS 1 Miami Dolphins (Thursday)

Denver Broncos 4 ST. LOUIS RAMS

TENNESSEE TITANS 2.5 New York Jets

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 9 Buffalo Bills

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 3 Baltimore Ravens

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 2.5 Cincinnati Bengals

Seattle Seahawks 6 DETROIT LIONS

CAROLINA PANTHERS 6 Atlanta Falcons

Philadelphia Eagles 4 HOUSTON TEXANS

CLEVELAND BROWNS 3 New Orleans Saints

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 2.5 Dallas Cowboys

Chicago Bears 3.5 GREEN BAY PACKERS

ARIZONA CARDINALS 7.5 San Francisco 49ers

Indianapolis Colts 3.5 NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL DOUBLEHEADER

WASHINGTON REDSKINS 5 Minnesota Vikings

San Diego Chargers 3 OAKLAND RAIDERS

RU-486 Analysis

Well, I have avoided reading any of your e-mails or other blogs in order to post this without being influenced, but I have to say that my overall reaction after Saturday's game was something along the lines of a long, slow exhale (while slowly wiping the cold sweat from my forehead).

After each game this year, I intend to post a list of positives and negatives to be taken from the game (looking both short- and long-term). Here are my thoughts from Saturday night:

Positives

1. Defense, especially in the second half: I loved how everyone, especially the secondary, flew to the ball. Holding GT to zero points in the second half was a heck of an accomplishment - particularly because it meant something. Overall, a B+ effort by the defense for the whole game.

2. Ndukwe's hit on Calvin Johnson: CJ might be the second coming, but he needs to learn how to hold onto the ball in order to really excel at the next level. Just a vicious hit by Ndukwe. I watched the game in NYC with my brother (and his DVR). How many times did I rewatch this hit? Let's just say the DVR feels like that record-setting porn star (500 in one hour?????).

3. Darius Walker in the second half: once DW decided to stop dancing in the holes, he made some really nice moves. He does not have breakaway speed -- he needs to realize this and get his 6 yards and be done with it.

4. 50% of Brady's throws: about half were absolute lasers, right on target (I'll deal with the other half below).

5. Anything involving Zbikowski: that dude is unreal. I think he's faster than last year (and meaner). He looks like he really wants to hurt someone. It's possible I may develop a man-crush later this year. Of course, doing so could mean death by Zbikowski, so maybe we'll keep that one hush-hush.

Negatives

1. Weis' playcalling in the first half: for a very long portion of the first half, it looked to me like Weis was trying to be too "genius" and not enough "winning coach." I'm not trying to be hypercritical here (everyone knows I love the guy), but he should have pounded the crap out of GT instead of trying those shot-put bombs with Brady.

2. The TD run right before halftime: although it worked, that was a stupid call. Brady barely got in - and if he didn't, the half was over. That is the type of play I could see calling if two passes did not work, but I hated the playcall at that point. Loved the result, hated the call.

3. Brady heaving the ball up in the air in the first half: There were at least two plays where I immediately yelled at the TV when he let the ball go. No rainbows, please, Brady (except on end zone jump balls).

4. The offensive line penalties: first game, so the big guys get a little pass here. But seriously -- STOP moving before the snap. Freshman or not, you've been doing this since you were 6.

5. The officiating: ridiculously uneven. I know everyone says we got the break with the helmet-to-helmet call, but that is bullshit. That hit was absolutely illegal and should be called. The one-sided nature of the rest of the penalty calls was disturbing.

OVERALL: very happy to get a win in a game that we almost certainly lose under Davie, Willingham (and probably Holtz at the end of his tenure). Hostile environment, prime time, etc., etc. Over-under on ulcers this year for me: 7.

I see no reason to revise the prediction of 12-0 at this point. Although I do think the USC game is going to be more difficult than I originally thought.

Let me know how you all saw the game.