I confess that I do not like the spreads on the games much this week (a recurring theme you will see below). One of my central rules for gambling is to avoid games with huge spreads, primarily because a team can utterly dominate an opponent and still give up a trash touchdown at the end to win the game by 10. But for the gambler, this is very bad. Anyway, listed below are my thoughts and predictions with respect to this week's contests (games I picked for the NFL pool starred, with point values listed):
Carolina (-1.5) @ Minnesota: I do not believe in Minnesota. Rather, I think their performance of last Monday night was more of a result of the general craptastic nature of the Redskins, so the pick here is Carolina. With or without Steve Smith.
Buffalo (+6.5) @ Miami (1*): Do not believe the Daunte Culpepper hype. He sucks. Buffalo is not a good team, but I think they cover.
New York Giants (+3) @ Philadelphia: Very difficult game to pick. I think the Giants are actually going to win this one, but I see it as a close-fought game throughout.
Houston (+13) at Indianoplis (5*): This is one of the big spread games that has me worried. The pick here is Indy, if only because I think the Texans are just that bad.
Detroit (+9) @ Chicago: I'm going with Detroit on this one. Chicago did not look unbeatable in destroying the Sisters of the Poor last week (a/k/a Green Bay), so I think the Lions cover.
Cleveland (+10) @ Cincinnati: Another huge spread disaster waiting to happen. I'll take the Bengals, if only because I have Carson Palmer on my fantasy team.
Tampa Bay (+5.5) @ Atlanta: Is TB as bad as they showed last week against the Ravens? Is Atlanta as good as they played last week against Carolina? The answers to these questions might help me pick this game. Alas, I am stumped by this one and so will chose Tampa Bay to cover.
Oakland (+11.5) @ Baltimore: Oakland is an atrocious football team. I hate the Ravens as rivals to the Steelers, but the money has to be on those guys.
Arizona (+7) @ Seattle: Kurt Warner comes through for one more week against a Seattle team still bitching about the Super Bowl. Cardinals cover.
St. Louis (-3) @ San Francisco (*15): The spread on this game seems very low to me, even though the game is in San Fran. I like Marc Bulger and St. Louis to run it up against the Niners.
Tennessee (+11.5) @ San Diego: Tennessee is a bad team, but not two touchdown losers to the Chargers and a rookie quarterback bad.
New England (-7) @ New York Jets (10*): Patriots are done killing their own division with ease. Jets are not a good team, but they stay close enough to the Pats at home to cover.
Kansas City (+10.5) @ Denver: KC is starting Damon Huard. Denver is starting Jake Plummer. I am not totally convinced Plummer is that much better than Huard. I like KC to cover. Bitter rivalry games always seem to be closer than people think.
Washington (+6) @ Dallas: Case in point about bitter rivalries. Both these teams, possible NFC representatives in the Super Bowl according to the pundits, looked awful. I like the Skins to cover. Barely.
MNF -- Pittsburgh (-1) @ Jacksonville: (25*) Pittsburgh is the pick. Total points of 44.
Y-T-D results: 4-1-0 (0.800%)
5 comments:
Have you managed to reel in any more suckers, err players, in the NFL Prediction pool?
Our friend from New Haven has also submitted his picks.
Any chance I can donate my points from this week's NFL pool to the Irish vs. Michigan?
BTW, the Associated Press is reporting that Michigan just scored again on the Irish.
That would be nice. That game was ugly in every aspect! Hopefully we can plaster MSU this weekend. BQ needs to have a big game to get back into the Heisman hunt.
Heisman's the least of my concerns. I'll take winning a game first before I take the statue.
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